Methodology · v3
BTI is a 0–100 composite score measuring how constrained a component is across supply, lead-time, substitutability, and regulatory dimensions. Higher scores indicate tighter bottlenecks.
Each L3 component is scored 1–5 on four dimensions by reviewing supplier data, lead-time records, qualification requirements, and trade/export controls.
| Dim | 1 (low risk) | 3 (moderate) | 5 (critical) |
|---|---|---|---|
| SC Supply Concentration (30%) | 5+ suppliers, multi-geo commodity | 2–3 suppliers, some concentration | Sole source or adversary monopoly |
| LT Lead Time Stress (25%) | Stock, <4 weeks | 12–26 weeks | >52 weeks, custom fab |
| SF Substitution Friction (25%) | Drop-in commodity | Board/firmware redesign | No alternative at spec |
| CE Compliance Exposure (20%) | EAR99, domestic | Moderate tariff / DFARS | ITAR / 10 USC 4872 |
Ordinal scores (1–5) are mapped to a 0–100 scale, then weighted:
84 L3 components are scored individually from supplier-level research. L2 modules and L1 domains are computed as the average of their children's scores (28 L2 from L3, 7 L1 from L2).
Each node carries a confidence tier (high / medium / low) reflecting evidence quality. Confidence is metadata only—it does not modify the BTI score. Scores reflect a point-in-time assessment (Feb 2025) based on public sources, trade data, and procurement records.
v1–v2 derived BTI from proxy signals (capacity utilization, lead-time estimates, substitution heuristics) with confidence penalties. v3 replaces proxies with direct ordinal assessment per dimension, scored from per-component research files with supplier-level justifications.
Eregion Research
An interactive map of the U.S. defense supply chain, showing which components face the tightest bottlenecks—and why.
Each bubble is a component in the defense industrial base (engines, sensors, batteries, etc.). They're grouped into 7 domains like Propulsion, Energy Storage, and Secure Comms.